American Challenge RYC/RJC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 12:00 PM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUGALA Hanna	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
2	DAMBAL Sasha	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
3	BORGUETA Madison	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
3	HU Anna	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
5	LEOU Korina	-	-	1%	12%	43%	43%
6	KWON Ava	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
7	GONZALEZ Veronika	-	-	5%	26%	48%	20%
8	HO Sophia	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-
9	MACKAY Katherine	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%	< 1%
10	AWAD Royce	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	4%
11	VINOKUR Anita	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	19%
12	MEYERSON Michelle	-	-	3%	18%	42%	36%
13	ZHANG Ashley	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
14	PARK Haylie	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
15	BAIK Sarah	1%	9%	33%	41%	15%	2%
16	BROWN Aria	5%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
17	WANG JiaQi	1%	7%	25%	39%	23%	5%
18	REN Katherine	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
19	DUTA Lyra	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
20	LIANG Claire	-	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%
21	WONG Charlene	10%	39%	37%	12%	1%	-
22	CASTELO Soleil	1%	17%	38%	32%	11%	1%
23	NIU Jessica	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
24	CHOI Charlotte	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
25	KIM Eunjae	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
26	HUANG Pierra	33%	45%	19%	3%	-	-	-
27	BAK Milena	17%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
28	BLUMBERG Harper	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
29	CONVERSO-PARSONS Maia	58%	35%	6%	-	-	-
30	MARGULIS Roxana	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
31	XU Elaine	25%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
32	LEE Hannah	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
33	WILSON Lilia	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
34	LEE Kaitlin	3%	20%	39%	28%	9%	1%	-
35	HAGN Luna	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
36	WU Tonia	1%	18%	41%	31%	8%	-
37	ZHAO Angie	2%	16%	40%	32%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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