Cobra Challenge SYC/RCC/Y8

Y-10 Women's Foil

Friday, November 25, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Meadowlands Expo Center - Secaucus, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Amabel	-	-	1%	8%	32%	42%	17%
2	ZHOU Chenchu	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	BING Charlotte	-	-	2%	9%	26%	39%	24%
3	MA Isabelle	1%	12%	45%	35%	6%	-
5	WANG Joanna	-	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
6	YIN Chloe	3%	25%	41%	25%	6%	< 1%	-
7	EYER Brooke	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	23%	3%
8	CASCONE Sophie	-	2%	15%	39%	36%	8%	-
9	MCSHERRY Kayla	-	1%	14%	36%	36%	12%
9	SOE Hayleigh	14%	43%	37%	5%	-	< 1%
11	WANG DINA C.	-	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
12	PUTHOFF Olivia	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
13	QIN Adriana	-	-	3%	20%	47%	30%
14	LEE Jeemin	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
15	FU Pui Lam (Paisley)	-	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
16	HUANG Natalie	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	19%	3%
17	HAFEZ Sahar	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
17	KRAHE Annika	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
19	LI Doreen	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
20	PAEK Mila	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
21	BENTLEY Amelia	-	-	1%	13%	49%	37%
22	FRASER Morgan	-	3%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
23	ZEE Savannah	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
24	STEIXNER Mia	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
25	LIANG Jasmine	1%	6%	24%	37%	24%	7%	1%
26	DE CASTRO Kai	2%	17%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
27	ZHU Ella	29%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
28	ZELDIN Nina	51%	37%	11%	1%	-	-	-
29	GE Deanna	10%	34%	38%	15%	2%	-	-
30	LIU Doris-Zihan Zhou	2%	15%	33%	32%	14%	3%	-
31	LIN Katrina	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%	-
32	SHEN Jayla	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
33	MA Sophia	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
34	KENNEDY Izadora	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
35	CAPPIELLO Francesca	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
36	BALIN Sophia	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
37	HOLLIS Priscillia	5%	24%	40%	25%	6%	-
38	YIN Melody	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	7%
39	CHEN Catherine	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
40	AI Mirabelle	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
41	BYK Karalina	15%	39%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
42	BENNETT Alyssa	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
43	ZHANG Ashley	1%	16%	45%	32%	6%	-
43	HUANG Cynthia	15%	50%	29%	6%	-	-
45	REN Luna Siyi	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%	-
46	YU Yi	1%	13%	33%	33%	16%	3%	-
47	XU Selina (Tai Ran)	1%	12%	44%	34%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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