The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Gold Finch RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, November 17, 2018 at 1:00 PM

Parsippany, NJ - Parsippany, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	STAMOS Maria	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	41%
2	JING Alexandra	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
3	GAYDOS Sofia C.	-	5%	18%	31%	29%	14%	3%
3	KOKES Gabrielle	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	32%	12%
5	HOOSHI Erica S.	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
6	THOMPSON Julia T.	-	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
7	HO Brianna W.	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	17%	3%
8	KIM Lauren Hyomin	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
9	SERBAN Samantha M.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
10	VEERKAMP Molly	-	6%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
11	LESLIE Ryanne T.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
12	MOLHO Sofia	-	3%	14%	31%	32%	16%	3%
13	STEWART Isabella A.	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
14	JING Emily	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
15	MAROTTA Veronica L.	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
16	SADAN Jordan E.	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	1%
17	KIM Rachael	-	3%	13%	28%	32%	19%	5%
18	SCHATZ Kristina J.	1%	15%	34%	32%	15%	3%	-
19	BOODELL Ella	-	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
20	XU Christine	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
21	LIAO Lu Jia (Lucy)	-	5%	19%	32%	28%	13%	2%
22	ZHENG Ivy	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
23	KOENIG Charlotte R.	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
24	YUGOV Elizabeth (Liz Yugov)	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
25	FERRETTI Anna Rebecca	-	5%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
26	NARANG Maya	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
26	LUNG Katerina	1%	7%	22%	32%	25%	10%	2%
28	PO Edith	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
29	LI Meilin	-	5%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
30	CHEN Kelly	-	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
31	WONG Julia M.	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
32	HOLLE Aviella S.	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%
33	CHO Lorin Y.	7%	38%	37%	15%	3%	-	-
34	HU Ally	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
34	KANIUK Rachel	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
36	MCKEE Alexandra K.	10%	32%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
37	LEE Alison	13%	32%	33%	17%	5%	1%	-
38	HUANG Natalie	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
39	DAVIDSON Sammy C.	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
40	FELLMAN Sara	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-
41	LEE Alyssa W.	37%	40%	18%	4%	1%	-	-
42	BHOGAL Sukhneet	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.