Fairfax Challenge ROC (DIV1A, DIV2, & VET)

Div I-A Women's Épée

Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 12:00 PM

Baltimore, MD - Baltimore, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KULKARNI Diya	-	1%	8%	34%	42%	15%
2	LEE Michelle	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
3	MARCHANT Sandra M.	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
3	TONG Sarah Shen	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
5	LAWSON Marie A.	-	-	3%	12%	30%	37%	18%
6	PATURU Meghana	-	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
7	PYO Yunice	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
8	KIM Caroline	1%	10%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
9	IGOE Nirali B.	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
10	KUZNETSOV Victoria	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	14%
11	RABEL Brenna V.	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	2%
12	ZHANG Maya	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
13	QUINLAN Nicole P.	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
14	HENRY Asha S.	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	10%
15	BELSLEY Devon K.	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%
16	JOHNSON Ryleigh E.	2%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	1%
17	KHAMIS Yasmine A.	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
18	KANG Dahyun	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
19	NI Emma	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	10%
20	BISEN Shivani S.	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
21	LEE Kyungmin	-	1%	8%	35%	42%	14%
22	YAO Jillian	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
23	KIM Elizabeth Y.	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
24	LEE Olive	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
25	DUNSEATH Lauren M.	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
26	LONG Cindy	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
27	LORENTSON Dawn M.	11%	37%	35%	14%	3%	-
28	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	5%	18%	32%	30%	14%	2%
29	WANG anne	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	10%	2%
31	HUH Anna	1%	8%	26%	36%	24%	6%	-
32	SIBLEY Elisabeth J.	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%	-
33	BOWIE Charlotta	19%	44%	30%	6%	1%	-
34	MENDEZ Melissa J.	8%	29%	36%	20%	6%	1%	-
35	CHAWLA Ishika	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
36	SHI Angela L.	17%	43%	33%	7%	1%	-
37	TOLBA Salma	12%	32%	34%	18%	4%	-
38	OGAWA Kaylin	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
39	GIFFORD Sally	21%	44%	28%	6%	-	-
40	CHOI Yuni D.	25%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
41	COOPER Tina M.	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
42	CORDERO Allison	30%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
43	GORDON Rachel A.	25%	41%	25%	8%	1%	-
44	ROWLAND May	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-
45	RIOS Donna B.	58%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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