South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, January 15, 2023 at 1:30 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Visitors Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Emily	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
2	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
3	CHANG Elizabeth	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
3	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
5	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	2%	14%	47%	37%
6	CHEN Chloe I.	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
7	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	2%	13%	38%	41%	6%
8	ZHENG Zoe	-	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
9	MORALES Paulina	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	29%	5%
10	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
11	SHUM Maya	-	-	1%	10%	34%	44%	10%
12	KIM Sydney	-	2%	16%	46%	34%	2%
13	WILLIAMSON Tessa	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
14	MENG Annabel	-	1%	8%	33%	39%	17%	3%
15	YONG Rosalind	-	2%	16%	46%	34%	2%
16	ZHANG Ivy	-	6%	26%	43%	22%	3%
17	ANDONIAN Lauren	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%	-
18	MONAT Jennifer	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	-	-
19	GOEL Riyana	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
20	WU Chingfei Amber	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
21	TULYAG Sayda	17%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
22	DESAI Esha	4%	25%	43%	23%	4%	-
23	YANG Luna	1%	11%	35%	40%	13%	1%
24	BUI Aubrie	44%	44%	11%	1%	-	-
25	WANG Yanxuan(Alicia)	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
26	LAY Apollonia	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%	1%
27	CHU Felicity	7%	32%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
28	SREENIVAS Ridhi	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
29	HUGHES Olivia	17%	43%	32%	8%	1%	-
30	BARTON Nanea	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-
31	VILLARAMA Kara	1%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%	-
32	OLSHANSKY Dalia	20%	45%	28%	6%	1%	-
33	MANIMTIM Rachel	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
34	CHANG Janelle	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
35	MA Yifei	49%	40%	10%	1%	-	-	-
36	CHANG Olivia	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
37	BEIGEL Leia	12%	45%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
38	MILES Quinn	1%	33%	52%	13%	1%	-
39	ANDERSON Colette	16%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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