6th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, January 21, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
2	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
3	DENG Melissa	-	-	-	1%	9%	40%	51%
3	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
5	ZOU Ella	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
6	ZHANG Ivy	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
7	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	-	6%	27%	49%	18%
8	POEI Lauren	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
9	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	-	1%	7%	28%	47%	17%
10	YONG Rosalind	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	23%	2%
11	KIM Sydney	-	-	5%	25%	50%	20%
12	LI Joy	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
13	LIM Kensie	1%	13%	37%	36%	11%	1%
14	PARK Lauren	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	7%	1%
14	LI Alice	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
14	WU Chingfei Amber	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
17	ZEE Savannah	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	-
18	LIU Ariana	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
19	RUI Jessie	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
20	CHOI Sophie	1%	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	-
21	ZHOU Joi	2%	18%	40%	32%	8%	1%
22	BENNYHOFF Naia	2%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
23	CHU Felicity	3%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%	-
24	PEDERSEN Haley	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-
25	YAO Abby	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
26	CHANG Olivia	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%	-
27	CHEN Madeleine	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%	-
28	AULT Aryanna	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	-
29	LUCAS Ava	12%	35%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
30	SOE Hayleigh	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%	1%
31	HUGHES Olivia	12%	42%	35%	10%	1%	-
32	MA Yifei	49%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
33	BORDIER Siloe	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-
34	LIU Samantha	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
35	BENNYHOFF Myla	9%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
36	CHEN Elysia	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
37	WANG Doreen	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
38	LIM Kora	26%	42%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
39	ZHANG Queeny	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-	-
40	LIU Celia	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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