Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 2:30 PM

Boston, MA - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PENG Bryan	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
2	BROU Inkosi	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
3	BAE Jason I.	-	-	-	4%	30%	65%
3	MCCARTHY Gabriel	-	-	1%	8%	24%	40%	27%
5	STURN Oliver	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
6	CHTERENTAL Alex	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%
7	IDRISSI Idris	-	1%	13%	43%	38%	6%
8	KANG evan	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
9	PRIMUS Nazir	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
10	PEREIRA Beckham	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
11	MATERDEY Alexander	1%	16%	37%	33%	12%	1%
12	YANG Michael	-	2%	17%	43%	33%	5%
13	ROSADO Mateo	1%	7%	25%	36%	25%	6%
14	SHINCHUK Daniel	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
15	COURTIN Frederic	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
16	ADAMS Rhys	14%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
17	ATWOOD Griffin	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
18	KWALWASSER Eric	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-
19	GRIMM Benjamin	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
20	WANG Daniel	-	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
21	MEDVINSKY Daniel	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
21	BAUMEL Zachary	12%	39%	35%	13%	2%	-
23	MUNGOVAN Matthew	43%	45%	10%	1%	-	-
24	BAUMEL David	12%	54%	29%	5%	-	-
25	HUANG Elliott	3%	23%	50%	21%	3%	-
26	LAWSON Timothy P.	42%	43%	13%	2%	-	-
27	SCHARR-WEINER Nathan	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
28	NAYAK Surin K.	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
29	TAI Roebling	54%	38%	7%	-	-	-
30	RINDISBACHER Peter	7%	36%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
31	LEUNG Ian	2%	14%	33%	34%	16%	3%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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