NEUSFA Tom Gorman Beanpot Open

Senior Women's Épée

Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SONG Angela	-	-	1%	13%	47%	39%
2	HAFEEZ Hania	-	-	-	5%	35%	60%
3	PRIHODKO Nina	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
3	CANNING Charlotte	-	-	2%	14%	50%	34%
5	WADE-CURRIE Ava S.	-	-	1%	11%	50%	38%
6	DAVIS Jessica L.	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
7	SPRINGER Sierra	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
8	AZMEH nour	1%	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
9	ZHENG Linden	2%	15%	37%	33%	11%	1%
10	CAFASSO Natalya	-	-	3%	18%	47%	33%
11	WANG Beini	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	19%
12	CHISHOLM Phoebe C.	-	-	3%	23%	56%	18%
13	ABRAMSON Mariela R.	1%	8%	30%	42%	17%	2%
14	ZHOU Zhixiao	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	5%
15	WILLIAMSON Beatrix	2%	17%	39%	32%	9%	1%
16	FENG Iris	1%	12%	37%	37%	12%	1%
17	ERSHOVA Anastasia	1%	9%	34%	44%	12%	1%
18	SANLIKOL Suzan	13%	42%	35%	9%	1%	-
19	WU Clara	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
20	MURDOCH ROY Grace	9%	36%	38%	15%	2%	-
21	MONOVA Lilyana	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
22	BALSKUS Sophia	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
22	SEREGIN Katya	16%	44%	32%	7%	-	-
24	KAUR Manroop	6%	27%	41%	23%	3%	-
25	SAAL Anna	-	3%	18%	39%	33%	7%
26	SHEIN Evita	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
27	DAVIS Ashley	3%	24%	42%	26%	4%	-
28	SONG Jaeyi	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
29	KELLY Diane A.	4%	27%	45%	21%	3%	-
30	COVINO Mila	43%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
31	PAGE Dannan	13%	43%	34%	10%	1%	-
32	WEINSIER Ryan	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
33	SKLAR Davida (Didi)	47%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
34	WILLIAMSON Astrid	22%	43%	28%	7%	-	-
35	LAPAT Gracie	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-
36	MASTRONARDI Laura	5%	26%	42%	22%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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