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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YOUNG Charlotte G.	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	12%
2	LEE Sophia	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
3	FEIG Sela	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	45%
3	SCOTT Eve	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
5	GOMERMAN Sophia	-	-	5%	26%	45%	24%
6	GUVEN Coco	-	-	6%	30%	44%	20%
7	LIU Yifei	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
8	LEOU Korina	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
9	CHAVAN Arya	-	-	3%	21%	46%	29%
10	FAN Grace	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
11	NAYAK Esha	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
12	KANDADAI Lara	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
13	OBRADOVIC Ana	-	2%	12%	33%	37%	15%
14	MYAT Chloe	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
15	BARROSO Isabela	4%	24%	42%	24%	5%	-
16	SVENSSON Siri Lin	17%	45%	30%	7%	1%	-
17	MCGRAW Sadie	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
18	HU Anna	-	-	4%	22%	46%	27%
19	KRASOWITZ Lucy	-	6%	31%	41%	19%	3%
20	GUGALA Hanna	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
21	HALPERIN Elizabeth H.	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
22	TA-ZHOU Emma	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
23	REN Xinling	-	1%	10%	37%	40%	13%
24	FLATT Sophia	3%	14%	31%	32%	17%	3%
25	CHOU Zoe	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
26	CROOKS Riley	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
27	DAMBAL Sasha	3%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%
28	BIRNSTILL Reese	5%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
29	NAYAK Anika	3%	21%	38%	27%	9%	1%
30	YOUNG Audrey	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
31	ZHANG Emily	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
32	FREEMAN Armine	2%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%
33	KAPLAN Gabriela	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	6%	-
34	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	-	6%	27%	42%	21%	3%
35	BORGUETA Madison	-	7%	30%	40%	19%	3%
36	CHAN Madeleine V.	1%	10%	46%	34%	9%	1%
37	COLBY Mercer	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
38	VISWANATHAN Nishka	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
39	SHMULER Fiona	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
40	LI Alexis	14%	34%	32%	15%	4%	-
41	YAO Annabelle	34%	51%	14%	1%	-	-
42	HARRISON Allie	65%	31%	4%	-	-	-
43	KOCIS Julia	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
44	BAINS Nandini	8%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
45	CHO Kaeli M.	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
46	OPITZ Allyson	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
47	PROBASCO Leila	6%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
48	NAYAK Antara	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
49	WODISKA Ava	48%	47%	5%	-	-	-
50	PASUPULETI Laya	13%	49%	30%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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