Badawi Challenge

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 11:30 AM

Alliance Fencing Academy - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PARKER Isaiah	-	-	-	6%	36%	58%
2	LI Tristan	2%	10%	27%	34%	22%	5%
3	LIOZNYANSKY Miron	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	YILMAZ Tarik	-	1%	7%	29%	44%	18%
5	QIAN Irvine	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
5	TUMULA Arihaan	1%	7%	27%	41%	22%	3%
7	FALKIEWICZ Alec R.	1%	7%	29%	43%	19%	2%
8	ROBERTS Arthur	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
9	ZHANG Shiqi	5%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
10	OLSON Joseph	2%	14%	30%	33%	17%	4%
11	WALKER Mclain	11%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
12	VAN RIET Stefan	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%
13	HIGGINS SEBASTIAN	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
14	ALI Rayan	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
15	PLUMMER Kellan	2%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%
16	TORRES Alexander	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%	1%
17	KHAVKIN Alexander	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	7%
18	VEERAVALLI Pranav	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
19	FULKERSON Charles	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
20	LIU Austin	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
21	VEGA BRANDT Luis	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
22	GORBUNOV Gleb	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	2%
23	SALAKO Caleb	13%	43%	35%	9%	1%	-
24	DESAI Adithya	-	1%	10%	34%	43%	12%
25	MUTTART JR Patrick	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
26	REYES Lucas	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
27	CREED Dylan	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%	-
28	GONIMA Francisco	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
29	FANG Daniel	26%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
30	FRENCH Drake	2%	11%	28%	34%	21%	5%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.