Badawi Challenge

Y-10 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 11:00 AM

Alliance Fencing Academy - Houston, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BELETSKII Ivan	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
2	LIU Austin	-	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	1%
3	ALI Rayan	-	-	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
3	PLUMMER Kellan	-	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	7%
5	GEVA Reuben	-	1%	11%	43%	41%	4%
6	FRENCH Drake	-	-	2%	16%	43%	38%
7	VEERAVALLI Pranav	-	2%	13%	37%	37%	10%
8	THOMSON Piers	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
9	DESAI Adithya	1%	10%	36%	40%	12%	1%
10	RISINGER Bryce	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
11	KIM Noah	-	3%	16%	36%	32%	11%	1%
12	ISMAILOV Alan	-	-	3%	18%	45%	35%
13	RODRIGUEZ Emiliano	-	1%	7%	30%	44%	19%
14	BALLEZA Maximilian	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
15	ZHAN ETHAN	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
16	KAPP Eamon	31%	46%	20%	3%	-	-
17	FANG Daniel	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
18	KHALID Ilyas	-	2%	12%	39%	37%	10%
19	FULKERSON Charles	-	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
20	TAN Samuel	35%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
21	GOLDBERG Simon	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
21	HOLDEN Harrison	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%	1%
23	FANG William	13%	46%	31%	8%	1%	-
24	REEVES Grayson	28%	52%	18%	2%	-	-
25	ZHANG Aiden	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
26	FENSKE Gavin	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
27	WALKER Beckett	25%	44%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
28	CHO Joshua	28%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
29	CHEN Linus	15%	41%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
30	BRUTON Lucas	1%	20%	57%	20%	2%	-
31	KIM Roy	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
32	SALAKO Declan	7%	31%	40%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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