The Battle of the Bay ROC

Div I-A Women's Saber

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 3:00 PM

The Fencing Center - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Alexandra B.	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
2	SINGLETON-COMFORT Leanne	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
3	ENDO Miyuki N.	-	-	3%	17%	40%	35%	5%
3	SADIK HANA	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
5	SEAL Julie T.	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
6	FERREIRA Alejandra E.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
7	NGUYEN Siena	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
8	YODER Bridget H.	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	4%
9	CHIN Sophia J.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
10	KER Grace	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
11	STONE Coral	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	< 1%
12	YANG Lea	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
13	MANN Sophia J.	-	4%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
14	FLOYD Pattama (Patty) C.	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
15	SCHMIDT Isabel	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
16	XIONG Haojiao	-	1%	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%
17	TONG Jessie	-	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%
18	TUNG Renee	-	3%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
19	KYNETT Kathryn G.	-	-	3%	17%	42%	33%	5%
20	GAUTAM Sahana	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%	-
21	TSE Angelina	-	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	13%
22	MULAGARI Sadhika	-	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%
23	BARNOVITZ Maya	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%	2%
24	LIU Sydney	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
25	CARLUCCI Laura A.	1%	10%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
26	AMBALONG Jody P.	1%	11%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-
26	DANG Kelia	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	2%	-
28	JIANG Mu Jia (Michelle)	10%	39%	37%	12%	1%	-	-
29	YAO Rainie	2%	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
30	HUAI Delilah	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
31	IYER Arushi	22%	48%	24%	5%	-	-
32	TAN Adelyn	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%	-
33	CHIN Elise	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	11%	1%
34	DIECK Miranda P.	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
35	DAVIS Jayna M.	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
36	RAZA Ziqra I.	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
37	EDWARDS Darby	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
38	RAZA Isra I.	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
39	GOSAVI Aabolee	32%	49%	16%	2%	-	-	-
40	SNOAD Indy	6%	40%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
41	SAWANT Asmi	45%	39%	13%	2%	-	-	-
42	CHANCO-EVERETT Aileen	12%	38%	35%	12%	2%	-	-
43	LUM Karen	32%	42%	21%	5%	-	-
44	KIM Lauren	9%	38%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
45	CHRISS Rhonda	41%	47%	11%	1%	-	-	-
46	BENT Sarah	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
47	BERRY Sophia	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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