2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 12:00 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CALISE Ella	-	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
2	ROY Layla	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
3	ZHENG Julie	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	28%
3	SEO Irene Y.	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
5	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	2%	18%	41%	33%	6%
6	FIELD Julianna	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%
7	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	-	5%	26%	48%	20%
8	PAULUS Isabella	-	2%	35%	42%	18%	3%	-
9	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	57%
10	SHMAY Anastasia	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
11	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	15%
12	ZHANG Selena	-	1%	10%	34%	41%	14%
13	FENG Grace	-	-	6%	27%	42%	22%	3%
14	MCSHERRY Ava	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
15	HAO Danica	-	5%	26%	41%	23%	4%
16	NEUMAN Sophie	2%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
17	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	-	1%	10%	30%	42%	17%
18	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
19	PAULUS Sloane E.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
20	LI Eleanor	-	-	5%	28%	43%	22%	3%
21	PEVZNER Nicole	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
22	LI Han (Helina)	-	4%	25%	43%	23%	4%	-
23	LEVY Avery	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	17%	2%
24	UNGERER Frieda	-	-	7%	32%	41%	18%	2%
25	WANG Amabel	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
26	ZELDIN Nadia	1%	15%	40%	33%	10%	1%
27	WANG Yudi	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
28	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	4%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%	-
29	YANG Lingting	-	-	3%	19%	41%	32%	5%
30	LI Xiang (Shining)	61%	33%	5%	-	-	-
31	JIANG Claire	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
32	WANG Joanna	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
33	XIE Lillian	-	-	13%	39%	35%	12%	1%
34	BERGEL Daphne	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
35	DALBERG Meadow	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
36	CHEN Sophie	3%	36%	46%	13%	1%	-	-
37	HARRIS Julia	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
38	LI Katerina	1%	14%	41%	33%	9%	1%	-
39	LOPEZ Seble	5%	40%	43%	11%	1%	-	-
40	WANG Reese	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
41	CHEN Colyi	28%	48%	21%	3%	-	-	-
42	CHAKRAPANI Ila	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-
43	LI Yixin Catherine	40%	47%	12%	1%	-	-	-
44	CHOI ERIN	44%	53%	4%	-	-	-	-
45	LIU Long	10%	43%	35%	10%	1%	-
46	LEE Allison	51%	47%	2%	-	-	-	-
47	CHENG Isa	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
48	TSIPORUKHA Sasha	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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