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2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 3:00 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PROFIS Liora	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
2	PRESMAN Aerin	-	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	13%
3	LIN Laura	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
3	MA Sophie	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
5	TRAN Katherine	2%	15%	37%	33%	12%	1%
6	HOAGLAND Sally	5%	32%	43%	18%	2%
7	SEREGIN Katya	3%	16%	34%	33%	14%	2%
8	AGAON Evelyn	-	2%	13%	30%	35%	17%	3%
9	SMUK Alexandra S.	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
10	BI Michelle	1%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
11	GANSER Nicole	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
12	MIN Melinda	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
13	ZHENG Erin	6%	33%	42%	17%	2%
14	BOROTKO Katerina	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
15	MEYER Rebecca	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
16	CASHMAN Amanda	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
17	SHAYAKHMETOVA Suzanna	-	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
18	FOUX Abigail	2%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
19	NOVOJILOV Anastasia	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
20	MISHIMA Audrey	-	3%	20%	47%	30%
21	TAM Connie	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
22	BISONO Valentina	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-
23	KOVALCHUK Erika S.	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	21%	3%
24	FU Yingjia	4%	22%	38%	26%	9%	1%	-
25	CHATIKHINE Anastasia	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
26	KAUR Manroop	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
27	ZOU You yang (Yoyo)	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
28	SUN Zeyu	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
29	WU Madisen	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
30	LOBANOVA Varvara	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
31	CHEN Alina	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
32	DHAIYA Tanya	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
33	SOLOFF Jessica	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%
34	KAMENSKY Elina	-	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
35	LEE Claudia	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
36	ABRAGAN Isabel Grace	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-	-
37	GEFFNER Olivia	61%	33%	6%	-	-
38	HU Chloe	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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