2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Women's Saber

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 8:00 AM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG JiaQi	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
2	CHOI Charlotte	-	-	4%	21%	42%	27%	5%
3	GONG Joy	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
3	NEMORIN Rei	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
5	REN Katherine	-	2%	10%	24%	33%	24%	7%
6	ZHANG Ashley	-	3%	14%	28%	32%	19%	4%
7	MULLER Inara	-	-	2%	12%	36%	39%	10%
8	ZHANG Audrey	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
9	KIM Grace	-	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%
10	YOUNG Sienna	-	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
11	DEMRY Kylee	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%	-
12	PEREIRA Izumi	14%	42%	32%	10%	2%	-	-
13	XU Elaine	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
14	FONG Zoe	7%	23%	33%	24%	10%	2%	-
15	MAGITSKY Giadora	1%	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
16	BRANDT Isabella	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
17	FADEL Emma	-	-	3%	15%	36%	36%	11%
18	WANG Keira	3%	15%	30%	30%	17%	5%	1%
19	MOFFITT Charlotte	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%
20	KARAVAS Lucy	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-	-
21	OSMINKINA-JONES Kai	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	1%	-
22	KABILING Anika Von Marie	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
23	CHEN Chloe	1%	7%	22%	32%	26%	10%	2%
24	LEE Elise	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
25	MULAY Arya	7%	25%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
26	CHANG Grace	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
27	PARAISO Isabella	9%	41%	36%	12%	2%	-	-
27	ONG Katherine	< 1%	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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