The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 12:00 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FENG Ge	-	-	1%	6%	23%	44%	27%
2	SHU Youshan	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
3	AI Amy	-	-	-	3%	20%	49%	28%
3	LI Fei	-	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	17%
5	SONG Angela	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
6	REMEZA Alissa	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
7	NOVOJILOV Anastasia	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%	-
8	FURMAN Maria	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
9	SMUK Alexandra S.	-	-	-	2%	14%	46%	38%
10	PROFIS Liora	-	-	2%	11%	34%	42%	11%
10	CHANG Chloe	2%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%	-
12	CHISHOLM Phoebe C.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
13	MIN Melinda	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
14	SMOTRITSKY Liat	-	6%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
15	LEE Claire	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
16	TRAN Helena	-	2%	12%	29%	36%	18%	3%
17	LEE Scarlett	-	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	24%
18	PRESMAN Aerin	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	4%
19	SU Evelyn	-	-	2%	12%	32%	39%	14%
20	MISHIMA Audrey	-	-	5%	25%	45%	22%	3%
21	REKEDA Anna	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%	-
22	QI Julieanne	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
23	SUN Zeyu	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
24	ZHENG Linden	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
25	CHEN Alicia	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
26	COLELLA Lauren	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
27	FENG Iris	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
28	TAM Connie	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
29	BO GENESIS	4%	25%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
30	SAZONOVA Alexandra	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
31	TRAN Katherine	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
32	KHAZANCHI Raeha	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-
33	MA Sophie	-	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
34	CHATIKHINE Anastasia	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	1%
34	MEYER Rebecca	6%	23%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
36	LEE Hwaeun	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
36	SATO Elyse	10%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-	-
38	PARSONS Leada	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	9%	1%
39	ZOU You yang (Yoyo)	10%	36%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
40	GLAZ Alison	12%	45%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
41	HARASANI Thea	26%	43%	25%	6%	-	-	-
42	JUDICKE Olivia	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
43	ZUCKER Emily A.	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
44	RITTER Brooklyn	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
45	BLANCHARD Remy	61%	33%	5%	-	-	-	-
46	FOUX Abigail	2%	14%	36%	36%	11%	1%	-
47	CASHMAN Amanda	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
47	ALVAREZ Martine	8%	37%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
49	KIM Lilian	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.