Cascade Clash SYC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	-	-	2%	20%	79%
2	REN Kayley	-	-	-	1%	14%	51%	33%
3	HO Addison	-	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
3	HU Jenna	-	-	-	3%	20%	52%	25%
5	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	-	1%	8%	42%	50%
6	BEAVER Ava	-	-	-	2%	18%	59%	20%
7	BROWN Lola	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
8	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	-	1%	10%	47%	42%
9	WANG CAROL	-	1%	6%	24%	45%	25%
10	ZOU Ella	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	14%
11	ZHOU Chenchu	-	-	-	1%	7%	36%	57%
12	KRYLTSOVA Eva	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%	1%
13	DUAN Sophie	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	26%
14	POEI Lauren	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
15	DENG Melissa	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
16	ZHANG Gwenyth	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	4%
17	TAO Ann	-	-	3%	17%	42%	35%	4%
18	ZHANG Ivy	-	-	1%	9%	30%	45%	15%
19	KIM Sydney	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	11%	1%
20	BAE Yooju	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%	2%
21	WU Elynna	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	8%	1%
22	ZEE Savannah	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%
23	DENG Claire	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
24	CHOI Sophie	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	2%	-
25	WANG DINA C.	-	2%	17%	39%	34%	7%	-
26	LIM Kensie	1%	11%	36%	37%	14%	1%	-
27	LI Joy	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
28	YANG Ava	19%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
29	LUO Miranda	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
30	HAN Mia	6%	28%	39%	21%	5%	-
31	WILDE Aiza	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%	-
32	LU Keeva	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-	-
33	WANG Mei	1%	9%	32%	40%	16%	2%	-
34	CHANG Lydia	1%	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-
35	CHU Felicity	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%	-
36	LI Alice	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
37	SOE Hayleigh	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
38	LIGERET Stella	3%	21%	41%	28%	7%	-	-
39	MAENG Gloria	32%	42%	21%	5%	-	-
40	LEE Zoe	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
41	ZHOU Joi	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
42	KIM Natalie	1%	14%	36%	35%	13%	2%	-
43	KEHOE Audrey	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
44	NEUMANN Erika	11%	43%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
45	WANG Doreen	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
46	CHEN Elysia	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
47	LEE Abigail	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%	-
48	LIM Kora	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-
49	SHELTONOYLER Lula	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
50	WU Allison	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
51	YANG Ana	58%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-
52	TEWARI Amaira	19%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
53	QIN Adriana	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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