The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Cascade Clash SYC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	-	1%	10%	43%	46%
2	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	-	5%	29%	46%	20%
3	CASTANEDA Keira	-	-	6%	30%	44%	19%
3	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	1%	10%	40%	38%	10%
5	SUN Chloe	-	-	5%	29%	44%	21%
6	HO Addison	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
6	BEAVER Ava	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	23%
8	BROWN Lola	-	-	3%	15%	36%	34%	11%
9	ZHOU Chenchu	-	-	1%	7%	28%	45%	19%
10	REN Kayley	-	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	18%
11	ZHANG Ivy	-	-	7%	29%	42%	19%	2%
12	FETECAU Ilinca	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
13	LENK Sophie	1%	14%	47%	30%	7%	1%
14	HU Jenna	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	4%
15	LEUNG Mei Hang (Danise)	-	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
16	WANG CAROL	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%	-
17	ZOU Ella	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%	1%
18	NAIR Supriya	-	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	14%
19	HAN Crystal	-	-	-	2%	19%	46%	33%
20	DUAN Sophie	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
21	LUO Miranda	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
22	DENG Melissa	-	3%	14%	33%	37%	14%
23	POEI Lauren	-	10%	36%	41%	12%	1%	-
24	TAO Ann	-	2%	21%	42%	27%	6%	-
25	LIU Grace	-	7%	36%	39%	15%	2%	-
26	YAN Noelle	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
27	STRUGAR Steliana	-	-	8%	34%	42%	16%
28	DESAI Esha	5%	27%	41%	22%	5%	-	-
29	ZHANG Gwenyth	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
30	GOEL Riyana	17%	56%	23%	3%	-	-
31	LI Joy	13%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-	-
32	SHIN Jaelynn	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-
33	CUI alivia	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
34	WU Elynna	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
35	CHOI Sophie	4%	37%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
36	HAN Mia	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
37	BAE Yooju	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
38	WANG DINA C.	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
39	LIU Emily	1%	22%	46%	26%	4%	-	-
40	CHEN Elysia	70%	28%	2%	-	-	-	-
41	KIM Sydney	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%	-
42	KRYLTSOVA Eva	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
43	NIRGUDE Esha	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
44	CHU Felicity	66%	31%	3%	-	-	-
45	YANG Ana	79%	19%	1%	-	-	-	-
46	YANG Ava	17%	58%	22%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.