4th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, February 11, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SADOVSKY Leor B.	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	85%
2	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	LLIDO Soren	-	-	1%	10%	36%	48%	5%
3	NGUYEN Liam	-	-	6%	29%	45%	20%
5	FINNEY Lorenz	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	12%
6	YI William	-	1%	10%	35%	41%	14%
7	PARK Sky	-	2%	12%	36%	42%	8%
8	KIM Aiden	-	2%	15%	40%	34%	9%
9	MUSHER Benjamin J.	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
10	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	-	3%	21%	46%	31%
11	DINSAY Kristjan	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
12	CHANG Nathan	37%	45%	17%	2%	< 1%	-
13	PONS Diego	-	1%	13%	40%	36%	10%
14	TSAY Jeremy M.	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
15	NAVARRO Kato	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
16	LIU William	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
17	ZHOU Hao Kai (Kevin)	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	6%
18	BAE Eugene	1%	8%	28%	40%	21%	3%	-
19	MORTON Joshua	1%	16%	42%	32%	8%	1%
20	GORDON William L.	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
21	PINCHENG Yao	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	-
22	KUO Jayden	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
23	PARK Ryan	-	5%	27%	43%	22%	3%
24	LING Carson Jr	7%	43%	37%	11%	1%	-
25	GREENEBAUM Oliver	3%	21%	41%	28%	7%	-
26	TULYAG Azim	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	9%	-
27	CHEN Brian	3%	24%	44%	24%	5%	-
28	TSOI Spencer	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%	-
29	FLANAGAN Miles	15%	45%	32%	8%	1%	-
30	CHUN Dashel	14%	42%	35%	9%	1%	-
31	ORNELAS Matteo	16%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
32	YORK Lucas	11%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
33	UPENDER West	49%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
34	BORDIER Timeo	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
35	DALVA Michael	11%	38%	38%	11%	1%	-
36	ROSE Jacob W.	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-
37	SHORTER David Alexander	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
38	SMITH Jeremiah	5%	24%	41%	24%	6%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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