Western Washington Foil & Epee Challenge Series #4

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Salle Auriol Seattle - Seattle, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUERRA Gabriel H.	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
2	KIM Andrew J.	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
3	LEE Christopher T.	-	-	1%	8%	31%	46%	15%
3	YU Jason	-	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	7%
5	GUTIERREZ Nikolai A.	-	-	-	2%	16%	43%	38%
6	MIN Eric	-	-	-	4%	32%	47%	16%
7	LIPPMAN Sam	-	1%	8%	24%	37%	25%	5%
8	STACKHOUSE Andre L.	-	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%
9	WEI Qiancheng (Matt)	-	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%
10	WU Alistair	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
11	KOEHN Ted	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
12	TALASILA Arush	3%	21%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
13	SHAGIDANYAN German	-	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%
14	CHRISTIAN Jonathan	2%	19%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-
15	LEE Jayden	6%	27%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
16	FECAROTTA Ryan	33%	42%	20%	5%	-	-	-
17	YAN Noelle	-	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
18	BEAVER Hannah	-	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	-
19	LIU Zixian (Aaron)	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
20	HAN Ashley	1%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
21	CUI Amy	2%	17%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-
22	HAN Crystal	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
23	TROXEL Sylvie A.	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
24	WU Jingxiao	34%	47%	17%	2%	-	-	-
25	VALENTINE Eoin	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-	-
26	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	2%	20%	43%	30%	5%	-	-
27	HARROCH Faustin	30%	49%	19%	2%	-	-	-
28	SCHULTZ Nomi	80%	19%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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