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River City Regional Rumble RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIN Felix	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
2	YAN William	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	WANG Max	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
3	HARDRICK Noah	1%	9%	28%	36%	22%	5%
5	STRUCKER Rocco	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
6	FENG Brendan	-	4%	20%	40%	32%	4%
7	CAI fungyu	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
8	BALU Aedan	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%
9	TIAGI George	1%	9%	32%	41%	18%
10	HALL Noah	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
11	XU Ivan	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
12	WEST-BEY Ahmad	2%	14%	37%	35%	12%	1%
13	ZUCKER Jonah	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
14	BREUER Daniel	8%	35%	38%	16%	2%
15	SZULIM Lucjan	1%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%
16	CRAIN Bennett	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	-
17	CHAWLA Abhishek	5%	28%	41%	22%	4%	-
18	RINALDI Savio	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
19	GRABOWSKI Stanley	50%	38%	10%	1%	-
20	MILLER Felix	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
21	FEI Danny	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
22	CARTER Robert	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
23	MCERLEAN Kellen	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.