Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC / RCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 11:00 AM

Sports Events Recreation Center - The SERC - Brockport, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Lawrence	-	2%	11%	32%	42%	14%
2	KATZ Ryan	-	1%	8%	24%	34%	25%	7%
3	KUSHKOV Daniel	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
3	MEHAN Nicholas	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
5	LIN Steve	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	4%
6	BERA Enzo	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	31%	11%
7	MATTOO Surya	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
8	BRANDT Jaden	-	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
9	LIN Maxim	-	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	21%
10	KUMAR Arjun	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
11	CLARK Aram	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	-
12	SHIPITSIN Alexander	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
13	LIN Philip T.	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
14	GONG Jerry	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
15	SRIVATS Vedh	-	4%	20%	37%	28%	9%	1%
16	GONG zihao	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	-
17	NGO Maximus	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
18	WANG ANDREW CHANG	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	63%
19	WANG Max	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
20	ATWOOD Griffin	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
21	ZHAO Lucas	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
22	NGUYEN Anthony	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
23	KMETA-SUAREZ Graysen	45%	39%	14%	2%	-	-	-
24	LIN Lucas	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%
25	GONG ziqian	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
26	CHUNG Connor	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
27	BOULAIS Andrew D.	3%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
28	MATTINGLY Ian	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
29	LEE Seungdon	1%	13%	31%	33%	18%	5%	-
30	SUN Bill	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	SUN Andrew	1%	17%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
32	MARGULIS Jared	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
33	CHEN Samuel	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
34	OLOUGHLIN Quin	31%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
35	WANG Weiyun	2%	12%	29%	32%	19%	6%	1%
36	WANG Michael	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-
37	FERTIL Ethan	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-	-
38	HO Jacob	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	5%	-
39	PINTO Marcus	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
40	VAHABZADEH Jake R.	4%	25%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-
41	O'KEEFE Cade	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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