Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC / RCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Sports Events Recreation Center - The SERC - Brockport, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEOU Korina	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
2	HUANG Doris	-	1%	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%
3	BORGUETA Madison	-	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
3	GUGALA Hanna	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
5	TENG EMMA	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
6	GONZALEZ Veronika	-	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	10%
7	BUSH Bethany	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
8	WANG Callie	-	-	-	4%	18%	42%	35%
9	BLAKE Anna	-	-	2%	12%	35%	37%	13%
10	WANG JiaQi	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
11	VINOKUR Anita	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
12	GONG Joy	-	1%	9%	25%	36%	23%	6%
13	CASTELO Soleil	-	3%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
14	LI Tira	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
15	CHOI Charlotte	2%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
16	YERENKOVA Ameliia	8%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
17	BERRIOS Catalina	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	30%	8%
18	KWON Ava	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
19	NIU Jessica	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
20	CHERNY Sophia	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
21	MAK Kaitlin	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
22	WANG Emily	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
23	KATZ Emma	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
24	HILD Anya	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
25	REN Katherine	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
26	LI Tiffany	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
27	HU Alicia	1%	7%	25%	37%	23%	6%	1%
28	MAK Jayden	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-
29	LIU Chelsea	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
30	LEIGH Adalene	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
31	ZHANG Nikki	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
32	MCCARTHY Nora Louisa Abrous	17%	38%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
33	WANG MONA	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
34	PALEY Alisa	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
35	HAGN Luna	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
36	WANG Keyu	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
37	MAGITSKY Giadora	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
38	HUANG Angelia	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
39	LIN Isabella	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
40	IYER Meera	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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