Silicon Valley RYC/RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Friday, March 10, 2023 at 2:00 PM

NorCal Courts - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
2	LUO Miranda	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
3	CHAN Mila	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
3	CHOI Sophie	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	14%
5	THERON Zoe	-	2%	16%	45%	31%	6%
6	ZHANG Gwenyth	-	-	4%	32%	56%	8%
7	CHO Karis	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
8	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	-	-	-	6%	37%	56%
9	LIU Ariana	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
10	FUNG Sarafina	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
11	CHAN Ella	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
12	SAH Madeleine	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
13	LEE Zoe	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%	-
14	LIN Allison	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
15	LEE Abigail	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
16	NEUMANN Erika	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
17	LIU Angelina	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%	-
18	HSU Emily	-	3%	16%	40%	37%	4%
19	HOM Avery	2%	16%	35%	34%	12%	1%
20	DURBIN Libby	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
21	WANG Doreen	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%
22	TAI Penelope	25%	43%	26%	6%	-	-
22	ZHANG Elizabeth	3%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
24	MA Yifei	14%	42%	36%	8%	1%	-
25	XIA Isabella	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
26	COLIC LANI	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	3%
27	KIM Natalie	6%	26%	37%	24%	6%	-
28	TAN Shouyin	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%	-
28	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
30	TAI Taphanie	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
31	TEWARI Amaira	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
32	CHEN Elysia	26%	47%	24%	3%	-	-
33	KHAIRUL ANWAR Rania Yasmin	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
33	AHN Hayley	21%	45%	28%	5%	-	-
35	LU Alexis	1%	15%	38%	34%	11%	-
36	HOM Emma	30%	43%	21%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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