Silicon Valley RYC/RCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 2:00 PM

NorCal Courts - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	VO Bao-Vy	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
2	GUAN Adeline	-	-	1%	14%	57%	27%
3	REN Kayley	-	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
3	DENG Melissa	-	-	-	4%	53%	43%
5	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	-	3%	46%	50%
6	SHUM Maya	-	-	-	4%	23%	48%	24%
7	HO Addison	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
8	HSU Kaylin	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
9	YUEN Elsie	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	3%
10	PENG Serena	-	-	-	5%	39%	56%
11	CARVAJAL Sofia	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	9%
12	GOEL Riyana	3%	23%	41%	27%	6%	-
13	PENG Charlotte	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	9%
14	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
15	KHAIRUL ANWAR Rania Zara	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%	-
16	LUO Miranda	-	3%	18%	39%	33%	8%
17	XIE Su	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	13%	1%
18	CHO Karis	1%	14%	42%	40%	3%	-
19	MA Yifei	15%	43%	34%	8%	-	-
20	TAN Shouyin	8%	31%	40%	19%	2%	-
21	LI Joy	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
21	TIKHONOVA Sofia	3%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
23	MANANSALA Zara	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
24	KIM Heeyoung	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
25	FUNG Sarafina	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
26	YU Sophie	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
27	CHAN Mila	1%	13%	36%	36%	13%	1%
28	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
29	CHAN Ella	6%	28%	42%	22%	2%	-
30	LIN Allison	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
31	SAH Madeleine	57%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
32	THERON Zoe	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-
33	HOM Avery	8%	32%	41%	18%	1%	-
34	LIN Phoebe	7%	33%	43%	16%	1%	-
35	CHOI Sophie	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
36	CHEN Elysia	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
37	EDGEWORTH Paloma	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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