Silicon Valley RYC/RCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:00 PM

NorCal Courts - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	SWANSON Alexa	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
2	YANG Audrey	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
3	FUNG Emma	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
3	GUAN Adeline	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
5	HSU Kaylin	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	32%	10%
6	XIE Su	10%	31%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
7	ZHENG Zoe	5%	21%	35%	27%	11%	2%	-
8	REN Kayley	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	23%	6%
9	PENG Serena	-	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
10	CUI alivia	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	< 1%
11	LUH Mia P.	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
12	FUNG Vera	-	-	-	1%	4%	20%	41%	34%
13	CARVAJAL Sofia	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
14	HOBSON Ava	-	1%	9%	25%	36%	23%	5%
15	PENG Charlotte	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
16	WANG Celine S.	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
17	OH Ceana	-	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
18	YUEN Elsie	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
19	LENK Sophie	1%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
20	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	4%	-
21	VO Bao-Vy	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
22	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
23	RAO Sonia D.	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
24	MCKAY Teresa	38%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
25	CHOI Sophie	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-	-
26	TIKHONOVA Sofia	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
27	GOEL Riyana	8%	30%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-	-
28	KHAIRUL ANWAR Rania Zara	12%	36%	35%	14%	3%	-	-	-
29	SEN Arjen	3%	20%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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