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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YURKOVA Mariia	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	24%
2	LI Eleanor	-	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
3	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	-	6%	30%	44%	19%
3	CHEN Renee	-	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	24%
5	YANG Emma	-	-	5%	24%	48%	23%
6	HARRIS Julia	-	2%	10%	27%	37%	21%	4%
7	KUMAMOTO Shino	-	-	1%	10%	31%	42%	16%
8	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
9	CASCONE Emily	-	-	-	4%	19%	45%	32%
10	YAO Ada	-	-	-	6%	30%	44%	20%
11	YU Jane	-	-	4%	19%	40%	30%	7%
12	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%	1%
13	WANG Amabel	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	4%
14	FIELD Julianna	-	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
15	SHA Yi Ling	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
16	ZELDIN Nadia	3%	18%	37%	32%	9%	1%
17	HU Felice	-	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
18	SHMAY Anastasia	-	-	-	8%	34%	42%	16%
19	BADLANI Diya	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
20	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
21	LEVY Avery	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
22	SHERLOCK Gabriella	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
23	LIU Long	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	2%	-
24	SHMUKLER Maria	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
25	WANG Yudi	-	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
26	SHENG Katherine	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	1%
27	KAPRAN Anastasia	-	1%	11%	45%	33%	9%	1%
28	KULKARNI Sohah A.	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
29	HANLON Lucy	11%	40%	40%	8%	1%	-	-
30	GAO Anne	1%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
31	HWANG Chanel	1%	11%	33%	37%	15%	2%	-
32	DALBERG Meadow	20%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
33	LEE Allison	28%	45%	23%	5%	-	-	-
34	SNYDERS Evelyn	12%	36%	35%	14%	3%	-	-
35	LI Katerina	4%	20%	35%	28%	10%	2%	-
36	LI Xiang (Shining)	25%	49%	24%	2%	-	-	-
37	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
38	BERGEL Daphne	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
39	CHENG Isa	6%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
40	CHEN Sophie	4%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%	-
41	REZA Fukaina	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
42	LAZAR Carolina	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-
43	LAWRENCE Nia	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
44	TSE Isabel	22%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
45	WANG Reese	10%	33%	38%	17%	3%	-
46	CHAKRAPANI Ila	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
47	MCDERMOTT Catherine	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
48	LI Yixin Catherine	32%	47%	19%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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