Goldfinch ROC D1A, Vet, RJCC and chair fencing

Div I-A Women's Épée

Sunday, March 26, 2023 at 3:30 PM

SportsPlex At Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GU Sarah	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	69%
2	WADE-CURRIE Ava S.	-	-	1%	9%	37%	54%
3	SMUK Alexandra S.	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
3	HONG Elaine	-	3%	18%	41%	33%	6%
5	CHEN Lefu	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
6	CHOY LeeAnn	-	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
7	PINNAMANENI Drithi	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	9%	-
8	BAO Xiaoyan	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
9	WITTER Catherine A.	-	-	2%	16%	51%	32%
10	LURYE Lina	-	-	2%	13%	37%	40%	7%
11	SMUK Daria A.	-	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	6%
12	FURMAN Maria	-	5%	27%	42%	23%	3%
13	HICKS Grace	2%	15%	39%	33%	10%	1%
14	WONG Alexandra R.	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	6%
15	CHEN Jingyun	1%	10%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-
16	KRUMHOLZ Nicole	-	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%	-
17	YOU Isabel B.	1%	10%	42%	39%	9%	1%
18	TONG Lauren	-	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
19	ZAFFT Sharrie A.	-	-	1%	11%	46%	42%
20	RANDLEMAN Teresa	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	8%
21	PARSONS Mischa	60%	32%	7%	1%	-	-
22	KUDIEROVA Anastasiia	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
23	BOWIE Charlotta	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
24	ROWLAND May	-	7%	37%	43%	12%	1%
25	FAN Elizabeth	-	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%
26	BARNES Olivia R.	-	5%	24%	43%	25%	3%
27	JUN Bomie	34%	46%	17%	3%	-	-
28	LEEB Zoe	79%	20%	1%	-	-	-
29	MCGEE Sophia	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
30	JUDICKE Olivia	27%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
31	XIE Fiona	9%	50%	32%	8%	1%	-	-
32	PROKOP Jeannine A.	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
33	UNGURIANU Nika	6%	44%	37%	11%	1%	-
34	DUNNE Jessica	43%	46%	10%	1%	-	-
35	SAZONOVA Alexandra	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
36	YANG Charlotte	11%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
37	ANAR Yesui	73%	25%	2%	-	-	-	-
38	ANAR Yesugen	34%	52%	13%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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