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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Jayden J.	1%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
2	RASMUSSEN Nathan	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%
3	HARR Carver	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
3	EVANS Tyler	1%	8%	30%	39%	20%	3%
5	KISSINGFORD John F.	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
6	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	11%	1%
7	MCADOO Declan	-	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%
8	EYMAN Hans	-	4%	23%	41%	26%	5%
9	MACMILLAN Collin	-	-	5%	22%	41%	27%	4%
10	AGGELER Donovan	-	3%	17%	40%	35%	5%
11	ELDRIDGE Darrell	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
12	TIBBETTS Noah	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	3%	-
13	GAMMILL Luke	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%	1%
14	BARTLETT Christopher	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
15	GOLDMAN Rami	-	-	3%	14%	35%	36%	13%
16	MILEY Walker	12%	46%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
17	PEARSON Heila	1%	7%	25%	36%	23%	7%	1%
18	RUSSELL Chet	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
19	MARQUEZ Jeremy	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
20	SHULL Marc	1%	6%	25%	38%	25%	5%
21	MCKILLOP Matthew	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
22	LEWIS Cole	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
23	PREHEIM Jack	32%	46%	19%	3%	-	-
24	SYKES Elynor	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
25	FREEMAN Kate	7%	24%	35%	24%	9%	2%	-
26	FRENCH Phaelen	22%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	SKUBIC Wyatt	15%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
28	DAVIS Shea	3%	22%	47%	23%	5%	-	-
29	LEWIS Rachel	28%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
30	REDD Andrew C.	8%	37%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
31	PEARSON Arwa	22%	38%	27%	10%	2%	-	-
32	ZIDIK Christopher	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
33	HANKINS Dylan	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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