USF Green and Gold Cup 2023

Div I-A Mixed Épée

Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:00 AM

USF Rec Center North Gym - Tampa, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	THAYER Jake	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
2	ALVIOR Joshua	-	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
3	ALVIOR Jacob	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
3	DUPREE Thomas	-	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%
5	FULLERTON Joshua	-	-	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
6	THAYER Bryce	-	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
7	KOSSMANN Alexander	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
8	KYPRAIOS Nicholas	-	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
9	FREY Wayne N.	-	-	-	1%	8%	32%	45%	14%
10	EMDEN Andre	-	-	-	4%	25%	51%	20%
11	LANGUASCO Michael	-	4%	19%	39%	30%	7%	1%
12	VON ESCHEN Benjamin	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
13	NONKOOKETKHONG Pakon	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-	-
14	WEDDLE Carson	-	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
15	WEGMAN Jack	-	2%	13%	37%	36%	10%	1%
16	BOLLE Elijah	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
17	REYES Ryan	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%	-
18	LEE Yat Ching	-	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
19	RODRIGUEZ Lucas	-	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
20	JOHNSTON Kellan	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%	1%
21	HEINZE Luke	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
22	BONK Michael	-	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
23	SANCHEZ-EMDEN Marta	1%	19%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
24	ROBERTSON Jon	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-	-
25	KOVACS Timothy	7%	30%	41%	19%	3%	-	-
25	AGEE Brendon	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-	-
27	KOSSMANN Raymond	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
28	CULLEN Reilly	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
29	HABIBE Yevgeny	2%	41%	42%	13%	1%	-	-
30	MYERSON Jesse	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
31	BELL Adam	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
32	RODA Thaleia	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
33	LEWIS Katherine	26%	59%	15%	1%	-	-	-
34	WHITLEY Alexis	25%	43%	26%	6%	-	-	-	-
35	WILFORD Madigan	54%	39%	7%	-	-	-	-
36	TRUE Robert	1%	8%	22%	32%	25%	10%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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