The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

The Infinity Cup RYC/RJCC/DV2 & Non-Regional D1A

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, April 1, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Savannah Convention Center - Savannah, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GLENNON Sebastian J.	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
2	ARUN VIKHYAT	-	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%
3	LANE Mitchell D.	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
3	RACHEL Dylan	-	4%	26%	46%	24%
5	BERNARD Jack B.	-	6%	30%	44%	20%
6	THOMPSON Daniel M.	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
7	MALIKOV Zinnun	1%	9%	36%	41%	14%
8	LIN Kason	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	10%
9	STEPHENS Corbin	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
10	KIM Daniel	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
11	MCFARLAND Kai	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
12	ALLEY Everett T	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
13	KIM Joshua	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
14	ZHANG Eric	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%
15	CHOI David	4%	27%	38%	23%	7%	1%	-
16	MAXWELL Austin	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	29%	8%
17	NALLAMSHETTY Ayan	-	4%	17%	36%	32%	11%
18	SNYDER Ari	-	3%	15%	31%	31%	15%	3%
19	LIU Dylan Y.	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	4%
20	PATEL Shloke	-	1%	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
21	JEON Hwidong	-	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%
21	CUI Jack	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
23	HURTAULT Jr Lester	-	1%	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%
24	CREMONA Diego Maria	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
25	HE Lingyun Matthew	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
26	KIM Jeff	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
27	SEBUSCH Aidan	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
28	HONG Robin	13%	35%	33%	15%	4%	-	-
29	JUNG Joshua	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
30	JUNG Elliot	7%	30%	38%	20%	5%	-
31	DAFFRON Reese	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
32	JOO Jeremy	31%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
33	HONG Ryan	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
34	WALLACE James	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%
35	CHOI Jayden	66%	29%	4%	-	-
36	CHUNG Joseph	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
37	NICKERSON Oliver	8%	31%	39%	19%	4%	-
38	REDDY Daksh	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
39	KIM Sangone	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-
40	OH Tony	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
41	CHOI Kayden	10%	50%	32%	7%	1%
42	DAVIS Kelly	8%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
43	ROBERTS Quinton	42%	41%	15%	3%	-	-
44	CHOI Adam	13%	50%	30%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.