Fortune Fencing ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC

Div II Women's Foil

Saturday, April 8, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Ontario Convention Center - Hall A & B - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SEIGEL Norah	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
2	LAI Sophia	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
3	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
3	LI Shuang	-	-	-	3%	14%	40%	43%
5	LEE Allison	-	1%	8%	33%	48%	10%
6	CHOI Kailyn	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	5%
7	WELBORN Calissa	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%
8	RAO Sonia D.	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%
9	MORALES Paulina	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-
10	KETTELLE Molly	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
11	ZAMELIS Madelyn	1%	13%	41%	34%	10%	1%
11	TON Kalista	-	1%	7%	28%	45%	19%
13	WANG Celine S.	-	6%	29%	43%	19%	2%
14	PATTERSON Natalia	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
15	MING YUE	-	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	17%
16	BAIXAULI Carme	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	7%	1%
17	GOEL Riyana	23%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
18	DESAI Esha	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
19	PENG Charlotte	1%	16%	40%	34%	9%	1%
20	TIKHONOVA Sofia	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
21	DAVIS Julia	1%	16%	41%	34%	8%	-
22	SEN Arjen	30%	43%	22%	4%	-	-
23	YANICELLI Sloane	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	7%
24	CABALU Alaina	5%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
25	BALCE Cyril	29%	50%	19%	2%	-	-
25	YANICELLI B.B.	9%	37%	38%	14%	2%	-
27	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%	-
27	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
29	LIU Jessica	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-
30	DOBRINEN Elizabeth	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
31	DAMJI Alia	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-
32	KAING Selina	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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