Fortune Fencing ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, April 9, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Ontario Convention Center - Hall A & B - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEW Alexis T.	-	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
2	YAN Noelle	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
3	HSU Kaylin	-	1%	7%	25%	43%	24%
3	SAIFEE Lamya	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
5	LAI Sophia	-	-	1%	9%	41%	48%
6	SWANSON Alexa	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
7	HO Addison	-	-	5%	26%	48%	20%
8	MU Allison	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
9	REN Kayley	-	-	5%	28%	43%	21%	3%
10	ZOU Ella	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	7%
11	HOBSON Ava	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
12	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	-	6%	28%	46%	19%
13	GUAN Adeline	-	1%	13%	41%	35%	10%	1%
14	PENG Charlotte	5%	25%	37%	25%	8%	1%
15	BAE Yooju	2%	16%	40%	33%	8%	1%
16	XIE Su	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
17	LEE Allison	-	1%	8%	27%	43%	21%
18	CUI alivia	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
19	POEI Lauren	8%	39%	38%	13%	2%	-
20	ZHANG Ivy	2%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
21	LIU Jessica	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
22	DESAI Esha	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
23	FONG Ellis	34%	50%	14%	1%	-	-	-
24	KRYLTSOVA Eva	29%	42%	23%	5%	1%	-
25	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
26	GOEL Riyana	34%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
27	DUAN Sophie	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
28	TIKHONOVA Sofia	1%	16%	50%	28%	5%	-	-
29	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	35%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
30	HAN Gian	2%	15%	39%	34%	9%	1%
31	CHATTERJEE Raina	43%	48%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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