Premier Challenge ROC/VET/RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, April 9, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Xiaohan	-	-	-	-	6%	30%	64%
2	JOHNSON Dagny L.	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
3	LEE Sophia	-	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	29%
3	YUAN Greta	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	24%
5	JEONG Katie	-	-	2%	11%	29%	39%	20%
6	SHI Julia	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%
7	XIKES Katherine E.	-	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
8	LIU Kelly	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
9	LI Amanda C.	-	-	-	1%	10%	36%	53%
10	FAVO Isabella	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
11	MERCHANT Aishwarya	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
12	YANG Ashley M.	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
13	LIU Yifei	-	1%	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
14	MAKLIN Sofia	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
15	YU Zhiang	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	15%	2%
16	CROOKS Riley	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
17	NEUMAN Ella	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%	-
18	DAI Olivia	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
19	MYAT Chloe	1%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
20	HAMBAZAZA Liisa	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
21	BAWA Anahat	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
22	REN Xinling	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
23	WANG yining	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
24	GUVEN Coco	-	2%	10%	29%	38%	19%	3%
25	HU Anna	7%	24%	35%	24%	9%	2%	-
26	TENG EMMA	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
27	NAYAK Esha	-	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	-
28	LIU Moran	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
29	ZHANG Chenfei	1%	11%	32%	38%	16%	2%
30	YOUNG Charlotte G.	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
31	MARGULIAN Maria	1%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
32	YAN Lena	1%	13%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
33	LOO Kaitlyn	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
34	DAVIS Jordan	1%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
35	CHAVAN Arya	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
36	SCHAIBLE Sofia L.	1%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
37	ZENG Sarah	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	16%	3%
37	ONG Lauren	64%	30%	6%	1%	-	-	-
39	NAYAK Antara	56%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-
40	CONNOLLY Vida	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
41	ZHANG Ruijia Alexa	6%	27%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
42	CRAINE Alexandra E.	1%	8%	24%	34%	25%	8%	1%
43	FAN Grace	1%	7%	25%	35%	24%	7%	1%
44	CHI Claire	11%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
45	WOTZAK Kaia	23%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
46	MCGRAW Sadie	11%	31%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
47	BORGUETA Madison	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
48	KHOST Maeve	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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