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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESERANNO Jeidus	-	-	-	-	-	7%	93%
2	LIU Ethan	-	-	1%	9%	45%	46%
3	REEVES Liam	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
3	NICOLETTI Luca	-	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	30%
5	ALLEN Henry G.	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
6	XIE Buster	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
7	TSAO Lukas	-	-	1%	7%	27%	45%	20%
8	GUTH Joseph	-	1%	7%	24%	42%	27%
9	MCISAAC Finn	-	-	2%	17%	52%	30%
10	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	14%
11	RAJ Jay	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	11%	1%
12	VOLLMER Quintin	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
13	LIU Jinning	-	-	-	3%	16%	44%	37%
14	STRINGER David	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
15	OROPEZA David	-	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
16	EDWARDS Maxon	-	-	2%	13%	36%	40%	9%
17	HUANG Chenghan	3%	25%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-
18	XU Xinhao ( Sonny)	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%	1%
19	CHUANG Oscar	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
20	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	1%	10%	35%	42%	12%	1%
21	DUNLAP Ian	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
22	XU Ethan	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
23	BERNARD Cohen	-	3%	18%	36%	32%	10%	1%
24	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
25	ZHANG Lucas	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%	-
26	CHOI Benjamin	4%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
27	KUE Temujin	3%	18%	34%	29%	13%	3%	-
28	SLUSHER Gideon	2%	13%	33%	35%	16%	3%
29	TOWNE Benjamin	1%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%	-
30	MASSIMINO Andrew	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	1%
31	VANOYEN Dominick	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
32	REAUME Nate	1%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%	-
33	LIU Yinhong	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-	-
34	COPELAND Nigel	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
35	PARKER Isaiah	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
36	NAZARIO Dominic	6%	30%	43%	19%	2%	-
37	HERRERA Xavier	47%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
38	MODADUGU Aryan	10%	40%	38%	11%	1%	-
39	DHOKTE Neev	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
40	MARISI Gabriel	7%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
41	MAVANI Krishna	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
42	KIM Daniel	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%	-
43	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	20%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
44	CHOI Inho	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
45	ZMUDA Aiden	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
46	LAMBERT Parker	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
47	MICK Gabriel	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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