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Midwest Fencing Conference Individual Events

Men's Épée

Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 9:15 AM

Nicholas Recreation Center, UW-Madison - Madison, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	MAURER Scott J.	2%	18%	49%	31%
2	WANG William M.	-	4%	30%	66%
3	SON Eric	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
3	LASKA Patryk	-	1%	12%	49%	38%
5	EVERHART Ryan	6%	34%	49%	11%
6	GOLOBISH Kyle	-	6%	47%	47%
7	BAKKE Alexander	22%	66%	12%	1%
8	ANSELL Zachary	-	1%	16%	49%	34%
9	FANG Samuel	3%	24%	51%	20%	2%
10	KRAJ Pawel	3%	24%	46%	23%	3%
12	KENNIFF James F.	8%	33%	42%	17%
14	GOEL Raghav	20%	40%	30%	9%	1%
15	LAI Aaron	32%	48%	18%	2%	-
16	WON Seungwook	1%	8%	29%	43%	20%
17	SHIN Jungbin	25%	46%	25%	4%
18	YAN Shen	47%	41%	11%	1%
19	TERRANOVA Jobin	56%	37%	7%	-
21	STENNIS Brendan	19%	56%	23%	1%
22	CHU Duong	37%	49%	13%	1%	-
22	WANG Peter	20%	49%	27%	4%
25	PERSICK Benjamin L.	12%	37%	37%	13%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.