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NorCal Div II/III/Vet/Y14 Foil SNQ

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Halberstadt Fencers' Club - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	GETSIN Anthony	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
2	LIU William	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
3	RUBIN Max	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
4	WONG Evan	-	1%	10%	38%	47%	4%
5	AIKEN Nicholas A.	-	4%	22%	42%	28%	3%
6	LIU Aaron	-	5%	25%	48%	21%	1%
7	QIU Zhaocheng	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
8	MIETTINEN Pyry	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
9	TUAN Evan	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
10	DEW Eric	-	-	-	1%	14%	86%
11	PETERSON Lucas	6%	31%	39%	20%	4%	-
12	LUI Justin	8%	35%	42%	13%	1%	-
13	PEZESHKI Oliver	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
14	BECKER Ethan	10%	41%	37%	11%	1%	-
15	TOYOFUKU Ethan	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
16	PERALTA Christian	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
17	ZHANG Graham	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
18	LIU Yuxuan	2%	18%	39%	31%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.