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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AGARWAAL Yohan	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
2	AVERY Marcus	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
3	MIAO Heqi	-	-	3%	16%	37%	33%	10%
3	KOZLOV Lucas	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
5	LIM JUWANA Maximilian	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
6	SONG Aidan	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
7	WU Vincent	1%	11%	30%	37%	19%	3%
8	LUCAS William	1%	6%	19%	31%	28%	13%	3%
9	ISAYENKO Daniel	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
10	BEAL Colton	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
11	ALUF Brendon	1%	8%	23%	32%	24%	9%	1%
12	ARCHIBALD Zachary	-	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
13	BENNETT Lachlan	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	3%
14	LIUZHANG Ben	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
15	CHAN Ewan	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
16	ZHANG Howard	5%	23%	36%	25%	9%	2%	-
17	SUN Stephen	1%	9%	29%	37%	19%	4%	-
18	CHEN Kevin	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
19	CROOKS Andrew	-	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	20%
20	BLAIR Campbell	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	3%
21	BROOKS Drake	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
22	KETCHAM Lucas	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
23	ZHAO Alexander	5%	25%	39%	24%	7%	1%
24	LAU Kyrus	1%	9%	24%	32%	24%	9%	1%
25	CHUNG Hahnsooh	3%	14%	29%	31%	17%	5%	1%
26	PARK Sean	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%
27	LEE Lucas	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
28	KIM Mason	7%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
29	MERZLYAKOV VLadimir	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
30	NARAYAN Rishi	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
31	O'KEEFE Brody	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
32	SUH Jordan	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%	-
33	CHAN Brady	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
34	HAGN Maximilian	-	-	2%	13%	35%	36%	13%
35	SHAPIRO Leo	2%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
36	LEE Blake	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
37	HOWARTH Hayes	5%	20%	32%	27%	12%	3%	-
38	WANG Harrison	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
39	LI Jayden	21%	38%	28%	11%	2%	-	-
40	THAMBI Eshwar	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
41	DEGREGORIO Jack	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
42	PARK Layne	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
43	RAJMOHAN Syon	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
44	JUNG Theodore Joonho	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
45	SABINO Bennett	5%	19%	32%	28%	14%	3%	-
46	CHAN Jayden	< 1%	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
46	WANG Adam	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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