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Mid-South Fencers' Annual Grand Open Tournament

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 3:00 PM

Mid-South Fencers Club - Durham, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	DANNULL Linus N.	-	-	-	4%	50%	46%
2	PHILPOT Evan E.	1%	6%	23%	36%	26%	7%
3	BADGER Carlton (Carl) M.	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%
3	DANNULL Lukas J.	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	25%
5	LOCKWOOD Ben F.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
6	TUCKER Iman R.	-	-	7%	32%	48%	13%
7	ARSENA Patrick B.	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
8	SHEALY Maggie	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
9	HOFFMAN Skyler E.	-	7%	27%	39%	23%	4%
10	FENKER William M.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
11	BARBEE Jackson	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
12	RANDALL Cathleen Coyle	-	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%
13	POTVIN Nathan	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
14	DOBBINS James W.	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	6%
16	HUFF Clayton R.	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%
17	HUANG Erich	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
18	LITTLE Shannon	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
19	BRUNDIGE Ian	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
20	TORRANCE Winston C.	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
21	PREUD'HOMME Xavier A.	16%	41%	33%	9%	-	-
22	AIKEN Charles	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%	1%
23	SCHIKORE Anna M.	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
24	MACDONALD Emily	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
25	YANG Yutong	4%	30%	43%	20%	3%	-
26	GORMAN Caroline	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
27	BAYNE Nicholas	1%	12%	35%	37%	14%	1%
28	WHITE Joshua H.	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%
29	DIAL Lindsay	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
30	FITZGERALD AJ	5%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-
31	MILLS Lundyn	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
33	HOEY Griffin	34%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
35	ARNOLD Rachuel E.	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-
36	NGUYEN Dave	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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