NEUSFA 6 Weapon D and Under

Div III Men's Épée

Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Worcester Fencing Club - Worcester, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HAN DongCheng	-	-	-	2%	21%	76%
2	KEYO Justin	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
3	SMITH Troy H.	-	-	-	1%	10%	36%	52%
3	THOMPSON Ian	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	11%
5	NORTON Theo B.	-	3%	16%	40%	37%	5%
6	PALLADINO Ben T.	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
7	SHONEMAN Sam	2%	16%	33%	31%	15%	3%	-
8	STEIN Philip	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
9	MARTONE Matt L.	-	-	3%	17%	43%	38%
10	MCMILLAN Jackson V.	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	7%	1%
11	SPRINGER Elijah	1%	12%	32%	37%	16%	1%
12	KAIN Brad	3%	22%	43%	26%	6%	-
13	ZHANG Dinghao	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	2%
14	FEINBERG James Y.	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
15	CHEN Allen	1%	8%	33%	41%	16%	-
16	KIM Nathan	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%	-
17	LIU Jeremiah W.	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
18	HICKEY John	-	-	2%	17%	48%	33%
19	KELLEY Hayden	4%	23%	42%	27%	5%	-
20	EGHIAN Armen	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
21	SETO Jing	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
22	HERZOG Michael	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
23	JACKSON Nicholas	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
24	MASSE Jack	-	5%	20%	34%	29%	10%	1%
25	WU Chi Kuan	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
26	VELAMAKANNI Advith	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
27	KANG Eunchan	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
28	NALLICHERI Ayaan	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
29	DODDAPANENI Mohan	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
30	COLÓN Atum	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
31	WHITE Aidan	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
32	SULKIS Adam	31%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
33	MECHREFE Anthony	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-
34	LARAGY Collin	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
35	DEVINE Colin	3%	21%	39%	29%	7%	-
36	BUTTS Brendan	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
37	HERZOG Frank	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	7%	-
38	RAULINAITIS Joseph A.	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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