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DCFC Youth Epee Challenge

Y-12 Mixed Épée

Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 12:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SUN Ethan	100%	100%	95%	68%	15%
2	SUICO Kyubi Emmanuelle	100%	100%	98%	86%	55%	17%
3	WANG Marcus	100%	100%	100%	97%	74%	25%
3	YANG Gary	100%	100%	100%	98%	84%	43%
5	DOAN Christopher	100%	100%	98%	87%	53%	15%
6	CHO Alex	100%	100%	100%	95%	57%	14%
7	CAO Carolyn	100%	97%	81%	47%	15%	2%
8	MIKHAIL Lucas	100%	100%	100%	95%	63%
9	GATEWOOD Michael	100%	90%	54%	12%	1%
10	REICHEL Norah	100%	99%	86%	49%	13%	1%
11	FENG Xinmin	100%	82%	40%	10%	1%	-
12	MCCABE Kian	100%	92%	62%	24%	4%	-
13	MILLER Balthazar	100%	98%	78%	36%	6%	-
14	YAO Ryan	100%	99%	90%	59%	22%	3%
15	PARY Jean Pierre	100%	72%	27%	5%	-	-
16	MORET Teagan	100%	61%	18%	2%	-
17	YAO Aiden	100%	99%	87%	52%	16%	2%
18	BERGAN Bailey	100%	100%	97%	76%	33%	5%
19	LIU Addison	100%	88%	51%	16%	2%	-
20	GRAYSON Anaya	100%	99%	83%	37%	6%	-
21	MILLER Xavier	100%	97%	80%	44%	11%	-
22	FREDERICK Thane	100%	86%	36%	4%	-
23	GAUVEY Amelia	100%	20%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.