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NYFA Youth Challenge Finals Epee Y8/10/12/14

Y-10 Mixed Épée

Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 10:00 AM

New York Fencing Academy - Brooklyn, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	DODIN Daniel M.	100%	100%	98%	75%
2	KHERSONSKYI Robert	100%	100%	99%	90%	61%	21%
3	MASKIN Michael	100%	98%	75%	20%
3	VINCENT - GRAVENHISE Malcolm	100%	100%	96%	76%	36%	7%
5	MIDYANY Ryan	100%	100%	95%	58%
7	MOKRETSOV Leah	100%	84%	46%	15%	2%	-
8	YU George	100%	34%	3%	-
9	WU Matthew	100%	98%	83%	45%	9%
10	NOOL Aaron	100%	84%	29%	3%
11	YAKHNIS Seth	100%	100%	98%	83%	41%
12	KATS Brandon	100%	93%	50%	5%
13	DANILOV Artur	100%	100%	99%	91%	60%	17%
14	CHIANG William	100%	86%	38%	3%
15	LAI Jayden	100%	81%	38%	8%	1%
17	BUTLER Xavier	100%	97%	76%	34%	5%
19	VILLER Alice	100%	83%	43%	12%	2%	-
20	KIM Abigail	100%	44%	7%	-
21	NING Miranda	100%	93%	57%	10%	1%	-
22	CHEN Jayden	100%	71%	27%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.