Freehold Fencing - June Open Foil

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 12:30 PM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KATAYAMA Kevin	-	-	2%	25%	74%
2	JOSEPH Willem	-	1%	13%	56%	29%
3	SCHLESINGER Nathan	-	-	5%	41%	54%
3	DESOLA Aidan	-	-	8%	43%	49%
5	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
6	GAO Payton	10%	45%	34%	10%	1%
7	KITAGAWA Eric	-	5%	27%	45%	23%
8	REZNICK Nicholas J.	-	1%	11%	43%	44%
9	SRINIVASAN Vedant	2%	25%	50%	22%	2%
10	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	17%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
11	NISSINOFF Lexi	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
12	AKYAMAC Bora	3%	20%	44%	32%	2%
13	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	6%	29%	44%	21%
14	LUM-DEBONO Alex	1%	12%	38%	38%	12%
15	ARCE Andrew	1%	17%	46%	32%	4%
16	KOVACS Wyatt	8%	43%	42%	7%	-
17	REZA Farazi	9%	48%	36%	7%	-
18	TRUBETSKI David	-	-	5%	27%	49%	19%
19	GESENBERG Jonah	16%	44%	33%	7%	-
20	STURGIS Zachary	22%	47%	27%	5%	-
21	HOLLIS Sean	6%	39%	42%	13%	1%
22	BELOKON Samuel	1%	15%	44%	32%	8%	1%
23	DAUM Charlie	-	4%	24%	49%	23%
24	SHANNON Jack	64%	31%	4%	-	-
25	WERWA Griffith	8%	43%	42%	7%	-
26	YU Stephen	-	3%	17%	38%	34%	9%
27	SORSAIA John	63%	32%	5%	-	-
28	TIBURZI Hallie	8%	33%	39%	17%	2%
29	ANGELOS Nico	59%	34%	6%	-	-
30	SELTZER Eve	53%	41%	5%	-	-	-
31	JOHNSON Maya	67%	29%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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