44th Annual Sunshine State Games 2023

Mixed Épée

Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 8:30 AM

Legacy Park Multipurpose Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	THAYER Bryce	-	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
2	IRWIN Peter	-	-	1%	15%	45%	39%
3	CLAYTON Robert	-	1%	12%	44%	35%	8%
3	KOSSMANN Alexander	-	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	1%
5	FORNARIS susana	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
6	EMDEN André	-	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
7	FULLERTON Joshua D.	1%	18%	44%	32%	5%
8	HERNÁNDEZ Leandros	2%	31%	45%	20%	2%
9	DUPREE Thomas	-	-	3%	26%	49%	22%
10	DAVIS Jonah	-	1%	8%	29%	40%	20%	3%
11	JACKSON James	-	-	2%	12%	35%	40%	12%
12	OSBORN Hunter	-	4%	22%	40%	26%	7%	1%
13	LEADBETTER Gordon	-	3%	19%	42%	29%	6%
15	ARANA Abraham	-	-	5%	24%	45%	25%
16	SLOTER Lewis E.	1%	18%	43%	32%	6%
17	FREY Wayne N.	-	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	6%
18	VENZON Gavin	25%	51%	22%	2%	-	-
19	FREEMAN Zachary	1%	21%	47%	26%	5%	-
20	LIU Kevin	3%	42%	41%	13%	2%	-
21	LANGUASCO Michael	1%	8%	31%	44%	15%	2%	-
23	HANDBERG Paul	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
24	GONZALEZ Lucas	15%	48%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
25	MARTINEZ Gabriel	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
26	SOLARES Carlos	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
27	JANES Cole T.	51%	39%	10%	1%	-	-	-
28	MARTINEZ Kenneth	46%	44%	9%	-	-	-
29	HEINZE Luke H.	1%	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
30	KOSSMANN Raymond	4%	28%	50%	17%	2%	-
31	HART Jenna	84%	15%	1%	-	-	-
32	LIU Nick	81%	17%	1%	-	-
33	COX Caroline	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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