MI Division Senior 2023 Championships- FOIL/SABER

Senior Men's Foil

Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 1:30 PM

Renaissance Fencing Club - Troy, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ORONOWICZ Jakub	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	12%
2	SENIC Lucas	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
3	SOUKAR Michael E.	-	-	3%	19%	46%	32%
3	LIU Ethan	-	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%
5	STRINGER David	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
6	EDWARDS Maxon	-	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
7	GOGOI Vir K.	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
8	CHO Michael	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
9	VANOYEN Dominick	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
10	PAI Lakshan K.	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
11	MCISAAC Finn	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
12	FU Steven	3%	21%	43%	27%	6%	-
13	FORTUNE Alexander J.	-	-	2%	16%	49%	33%
14	MASSIMINO Andrew	15%	44%	32%	8%	1%	-
15	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
16	MAVANI Krishna	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
17	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	5%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
18	ASHIDA Tomoaki	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
19	SLUSHER Gideon	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
20	NYKAMP Caleb	1%	10%	35%	42%	12%	1%
21	COTTER Jeffrey V.	1%	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
22	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
23	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	17%	41%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
24	REAUME Nate	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
25	KUE Temujin	30%	43%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
26	BATTISFORE Hunter	3%	20%	37%	28%	10%	2%	-
27	OXIE Matthew	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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