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NYFA camp tournament #2

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Brooklyn, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KIM Jayden	100%	100%	99%	92%	66%	23%
2	NAZAROVA Sanam	100%	100%	99%	91%	61%	19%
3	SAVORETTI Pietro	100%	99%	87%	54%	17%	2%
4	HURSEVER Timur	100%	100%	95%	66%	11%
5	MIDYANY Evan	100%	100%	99%	88%	56%	15%
6	XIA Dashan	100%	100%	99%	90%	54%
7	PRESMAN Aerin	100%	100%	99%	89%	58%	14%
8	ELTERMAN Kate	100%	95%	73%	37%	10%	1%
9	STERN Savannah	100%	66%	20%	3%	-
10	PATEL Swara	100%	95%	72%	35%	9%	1%
11	LOBANOVA Varvara	100%	88%	52%	16%	2%	-
12	SU Evelyn	100%	99%	81%	18%	1%
13	KENDLER Micah	100%	94%	69%	31%	7%	-
14	YOUSSEF Caroline	100%	91%	59%	22%	4%	-
14	SOLARZ Arthur	100%	87%	47%	13%	2%	-
16	BALAZS Luca	100%	89%	55%	18%	2%	-
17	KANE Chloe	100%	71%	23%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.