Trick or Retreat RYC / RJCC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 12:00 PM

New Jersey Convention and Exposition Center - Edison, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUYNH Matthew	-	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
2	XIAN kevin	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
3	WANG Mendy	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
3	ZHUANG Disheng	-	3%	19%	43%	30%	4%
5	ZHAI Alex	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
6	XIE Jayden	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
7	LYU Hugo	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
8	ZHANG Aaron	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
9	YUNG Zak	4%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%	-
10	ZHAI Derrick	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
11	JI Derek	1%	5%	19%	32%	28%	12%	2%
12	VENAFRO Tristan	-	-	1%	5%	24%	45%	25%
13	WU Wallace	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
14	CAO Joshua	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
15	CHANG Parker	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
16	SHEN Lucas	2%	16%	32%	31%	15%	4%	-
17	SU Aiden	-	1%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
18	HU Michael	4%	22%	39%	26%	8%	1%
19	LIN Ziyue	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
20	YOU George	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
21	LIU Gene	1%	11%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-
22	SHARMA Ari	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
23	WANG Jaren	-	1%	10%	31%	38%	18%	3%
24	XIA Vincent	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
25	HUANG Dalynn	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%
26	YANG Luca	-	-	< 1%	3%	17%	42%	38%
27	ZHONG Kingsley	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
28	CAO Aaron	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	10%
29	CASCONE Raffaele	1%	8%	27%	37%	23%	5%
30	ZHONG Albert	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	RICHMAN Aaron	23%	50%	22%	4%	-	-	-
32	HUYNH Kaleb	1%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
33	PAN Jason	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	5%
34	CHEUNG Jayden	43%	43%	13%	2%	-	-	-
35	TIAN Andy	38%	40%	17%	4%	-	-	-
36	WANG Jaaziel	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
37	ZHAO David	9%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
38	WANG Grant	< 1%	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
39	FANG Lionel	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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