Trick or Retreat RYC / RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 1:00 PM

New Jersey Convention and Exposition Center - Edison, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WADE-CURRIE Ava S.	-	-	-	-	5%	36%	58%
2	WATTANAKIT Anda	-	1%	9%	35%	40%	15%
3	HAFEEZ Hiba	-	-	2%	14%	38%	41%	5%
3	SHU Youshan	-	-	4%	22%	44%	30%
5	HAFEEZ Hania	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	62%
6	WANG Trinity	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
7	RANDLEMAN Teresa	-	-	6%	28%	43%	22%
8	FAN Elizabeth	-	-	1%	11%	38%	41%	8%
9	TRAN Helena	-	7%	28%	40%	21%	4%
10	FENG Ge	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
11	FANG Jocelyn	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
12	BASRALIAN Azniv	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
13	LEE Claire	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	16%
14	CHATIKHINE Anastasia	1%	10%	35%	38%	14%	2%
15	HILLYER Megan	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%	-
16	ZHANG ANGELA	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%	-
17	LI Fei	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
18	RITTER Brooklyn	3%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-	-
19	REKEDA Anna	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
20	KAUR Manroop	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
21	LIN Cynthia	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-
22	ZHENG Linden	-	-	5%	23%	44%	25%	3%
23	ZOU ZIXI	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%
24	ELKHATEEB Fajr	3%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
25	COLELLA Lauren	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
26	LIN Victoria T.	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%
27	PAN Angela	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
28	SHANKERDAS Shreeya	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
29	SHAKIR Inaaya	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
30	CHANG Chloe	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
31	HAUSHEER Kuncen	10%	44%	35%	10%	1%	-
32	WANG Selina	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
33	CHEN Alicia	7%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
34	KRAJA Emma	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
35	HE Lizbeth	4%	27%	41%	22%	5%	-
36	FAKTOR Emily	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
37	PHELAN Gabrielle	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
38	MILLER Cassandra	14%	39%	34%	12%	1%	-	-
39	SATO Elyse	60%	33%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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