Daytona Duel ROC

Div II Women's Épée

Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 3:00 PM

The Ocean Center Convention Center - Daytona Beach, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BAKSA Frances E.	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
2	MARTINEZ Christina	-	7%	49%	38%	5%
3	DONGES Anna	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
3	ECHEVERRY Sofia	-	3%	27%	51%	19%
5	WALTER Anna	10%	33%	38%	17%	3%
6	NGUYEN Audrey	-	-	7%	39%	53%
7	DENG Annie	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
8	HILBY Olivia	13%	41%	35%	11%	1%
9	SKILLMAN Natalie	1%	6%	28%	44%	19%	1%
10	LEE yat ching	-	-	5%	34%	62%
11	GASPAR Paula	1%	10%	35%	42%	13%
12	NOH Rachel	3%	19%	40%	29%	8%	1%
13	MCCREARY Madeleine	16%	44%	32%	8%	1%
14	FERNLUND Helen	-	18%	52%	27%	3%
15	ROMERO KURI Celeste	-	1%	10%	37%	45%	7%
16	LIN Victoria T.	4%	23%	42%	26%	5%
17	CREMONA Viola Maria	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
18	EDEN SOPHIA	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
19	HART Jenna	10%	35%	39%	15%	2%	-
20	SANCHEZ-EMDEN Marta	2%	17%	43%	32%	6%
21	WHITLEY Alexis	3%	54%	35%	6%	-
22	SANDERS Charlotte	-	3%	32%	51%	14%
23	DUBROVINA Irene	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
24	DAVIS Shanna	43%	42%	13%	2%	-
25	SHARMA Maya	37%	56%	7%	-	-
26	MORENO Mariapaz	51%	44%	5%	-	-
27	WILFORD Madigan	18%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
28	DAVIS Elisabeth	32%	45%	20%	3%	-	-
29	LIANG Angela	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
30	MANIKANDAN Aashrithaa	13%	37%	36%	13%	1%
31	SARMIENTO Astrid	5%	42%	41%	11%	1%	-
32	BOBE Isabelle	91%	9%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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