North Texas Roundup SYC / RCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, September 2, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Arlington ESports Stadium - Arlington, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BOSITA Brennan	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
2	KANG Matthew	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	CHAMBERS Miles	-	-	-	-	2%	18%	81%
3	TANG Morgan	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
5	CAO Donald	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	28%
6	WONG Ron	-	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	1%
7	KANG Jeremy	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
8	YUEN Caleb	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
9	URSU Marcel T.	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
10	ZHAO Royce	-	-	2%	10%	27%	39%	22%
11	WEI Rian	-	-	5%	25%	47%	23%
12	WANG Alex	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	4%
13	DAI Zihou	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
14	LI Huangziyue	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
15	ROH Jaden	28%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
16	GRIGORIEV Roman	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
17	SLAVNOV Anton	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
18	ZHAO Aidan	-	4%	20%	37%	29%	8%	-
19	BAERENWALD Tybalt Wolfram	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
20	MAI Ryan	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
21	LAU Kyrus	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
21	ZHANG Caleb	15%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
23	SONG Aidan	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
24	YU Ian	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	3%
25	LIN Alex	17%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
26	LI Ryan	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
27	KAUL Ishaan	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
28	BROOKS Theo	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-
29	LUCAS William	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	5%
30	SIDDAMSHETTY Ishaan	4%	17%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
31	BADMUS Joshua	2%	15%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
32	KIM Eric	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
33	ROBINSON Ezra	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%	1%
34	BROOKS Drake	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
35	BROOKS Isaac	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
36	THOTAKURA Sreyas	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
36	LU Simon	1%	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
38	KIM Dylan	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
39	KAMURA Kosei	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
40	STENSON Silas	4%	25%	42%	24%	4%	-
41	LIU Dylan	5%	30%	39%	21%	5%	1%	-
42	SRA Nawab	2%	25%	41%	25%	6%	1%	-
43	SALMAN Ibrahim	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
44	CHEN Harrison	61%	32%	6%	-	-	-	-
45	LIU Andy	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
46	ANTOINE Emile	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
47	RAJ Adithya	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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